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According to Russian propaganda’s description, the “Oreshnik” with a “kinetic” warhead boasts immense destructive power, hitting buried targets with “tungsten rods.” However, an examination of the third impact site of these submunitions suggests a different reality.
Key Points:
- Ukrainian experts have confirmed the lack of significant consequences from the “Oreshnik” missile strike, debunking the myth of its destructive capability.
- The dimensions of the craters in the ground indicate the actual impact energy that formed them, estimated to be in the range of 220-400 MJ, equivalent to the explosion of 52-95 kg of TNT.
Russia Propagates a Myth About the Destructive Power of “Oreshnik” — Experts Refute
Specialists are actively investigating the impact sites of the “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile submunitions in Bila Tserkva on the night of May 24th. Their findings have allowed for the debunking of another myth propagated by the Russians regarding this weapon.
After the third use of the “Oreshnik” IRBM without any significant consequences, even citizens of the Russian Federation have begun to doubt the Kremlin’s propaganda about the “analog-of-no-other” nature of this weapon. Against this backdrop, Russian propagandists have once again spread the narrative that “Oreshnik” carries special tungsten kinetic warheads. They claim these warheads possess ultra-high penetration capabilities, supposedly allowing them to strike “secret underground shelters,” thereby leaving minimal visible damage on the surface.
Meanwhile, Defense Express has learned from its own sources the dimensions of the craters left by the “Oreshnik” submunitions in ordinary soil. A general examination revealed that their average dimensions are approximately: up to 3 meters in diameter and up to 2 meters deep.
Due to the collision energy, the submunitions themselves no longer physically exist, having fragmented into very small pieces with partial vaporization resulting from the impact energy. This prevents us from definitively answering whether these were indeed so-called “rods” or simply the casings of mass-and-size mock-ups of warheads.
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In any case, the overall size and depth of the craters, as well as the damage to garages, are consistent with what was observed in Dnipro and Lviv. This indicates that there is no new type of warhead involved.
The dimensions of the craters allow for an approximate assessment of the impact energy that caused them. Precise mathematical calculations and modeling will be conducted later, but it is roughly estimated to be in the range of 220-400 MJ.
This collision energy is approximately equivalent to the explosion of 52-95 kg of TNT. However, this is a rather conditional comparison due to the entirely different nature of energy release during a kinetic impact versus a chemical explosion. Furthermore, explosions, even from high-explosive warheads, invariably produce primary and secondary fragments, which are almost entirely absent in a kinetic impact.
Russia used an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against the Kyiv region, with the impact area identified near Bila Tserkva.
Footage also appears to show the missile’s post-boost separation phase, with multiple reentry vehicles descending toward the target… pic.twitter.com/NkUxI5TP7P
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) May 23, 2026
However, overall, this allows for a reasonable assessment of the consequences of such a strike, which contains 36 submunitions and can be conditionally equated to the impact of 36 “Shaheds” with an enhanced warhead. Although the nature of the damage in both cases is fundamentally different, as the “Shahed” warhead has a high-explosive and fragmentation effect.
The difference, however, lies in the fact that Russia plans to assemble five “Oreshnik” IRBMs in 2026, at a rate of one missile every 2-2.5 months. In contrast, producing 36 “Shaheds” would require approximately 8 hours.