Ukraine is employing a new tactic, striking deep behind enemy lines. Military experts explain whether this strategy can compel the Kremlin to negotiate.
A Ukrainian soldier at the front / © General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Facebook
Ukraine is currently focusing on spectacular drone attacks deep within Russian territory. Assessing Kyiv’s chances of victory, experts believe that success lies in stabilizing the front, isolating Crimea, and destroying enemy logistics, which should serve as a political lever to force President Vladimir Putin into negotiations.
This is reported in a Bild article.
Following Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023, the front line has changed only marginally. However, Ukraine has recently shown new signs of strength: through large-scale drone attacks, Kyiv is hitting targets deep inside Russia, increasing pressure on both Moscow and occupied Crimea. These attacks are causing airports to cease operations, oil facilities to burn, and logistical routes to be threatened. Against this backdrop, the question arises again: can Ukraine ultimately win the war against Putin?
Can Ukraine Win the War?
Military expert Franz-Stefan Gady is convinced that Ukraine’s success remains entirely possible.
“Realistic success for Ukraine means stabilizing the front, cutting off Crimea from Russian supply using drones and missiles, and forcing Russia to abandon parts of the south because it can no longer supply its troops there,” Gady stated.
According to him, the key pressure is currently being created “primarily by Ukrainian medium-range drone attacks,” which “are hitting Russian logistics, air defense, and troop concentrations.”
Ukraine Must Take the War to Russian Territory
Ukraine expert Nico Lange holds a similar view. In his opinion, Kyiv’s main chance is “to do exactly what Western partners, including Germany, have long been hesitant to do: strike deep into Russian territory.”
The expert believes this could become an important political tool.
“If the war in Russia leads to political destabilization, Putin might become ready for negotiations,” Lange noted.
What Constitutes a Ukrainian Victory?
Military analyst Gustav Gressel also allows for the possibility of Ukrainian success, although he emphasizes that many misunderstand the very concept of victory.
“Many people think ‘victory’ means Ukraine conquering Russia,” the expert said.
In reality, according to him, victory for Ukraine is primarily about the ability **”to remain a sovereign state without Russian external dictates.”** Additionally, it involves minimizing “the likelihood of a new Russian attack” and “restoring territorial integrity.”
Meanwhile, Gressel currently assesses the large-scale Ukrainian attacks as “at best psychological warfare.”
Putin Still Has Trumps
Despite optimistic assessments, experts also draw attention to the risks. Gady emphasizes that Russia continues to make slow progress on the front. The main question now is “whether Russia will conduct a new mobilization, as it did in the fall of 2022?”
Furthermore, Ukraine currently does have “a drone advantage.” However, as the expert points out, such an advantage in war “usually lasts only three to four months.”
According to the expert, if Russia manages to close this gap and simultaneously transfer “fresh soldiers” to the front, then “the window of opportunity for Kyiv may close again.”
Therefore, he summarized, “a stable front plus an isolated Crimea would be a great success for Kyiv.”
Incidentally, historian Yaroslav Hrytsak believes that Putin is not ready for peace talks and will continue to escalate, as he acts not rationally but emotionally and unpredictably. Despite Russian society’s fatigue with the war, the dictator will not change course without significant external pressure, and due to his irrationality, even the most radical scenarios, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, cannot be ruled out.
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Source: tsn.ua