Путін приймає всі рішення, а не Лукашенко: Портніков оцінює ризик нового вторгнення з Білорусі

The decisions made in Belarus concerning the war against Ukraine are not decisively influenced by the self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko, but by dictator Putin.

This opinion was expressed on the air of Espreso by journalist Vitaly Portnikov.

According to him, if the Kremlin decides to use Belarusian territory for a new offensive against Ukraine, Lukashenko’s position will not be decisive.

At the same time, the journalist emphasized that he does not currently see signs of such a scenario being prepared.

“I don’t see signs of this yet, but that doesn’t mean these signs won’t appear, that some grouping of Russian troops won’t emerge in Belarus that will try to break through to Kyiv,” he noted.

In his opinion, missile and drone attacks from Belarusian territory remain a more realistic threat for now.

Portnikov also drew attention to the risks for Belarus itself in the event of its more active involvement in the war.

“If something flies at us from the territory of Belarus, we will have a legitimate opportunity to strike at the same Mozyr refinery, which Lukashenko advised Zelensky to strike back in 2022,” the journalist remarked.

He added that the Belarusian economy is significantly more vulnerable than the Russian one.

“Belarus does not have as much economy as Russia. A few well-aimed strikes, even by drones, will simply bring down the Belarusian economy, including the one important for the Russian military-industrial complex,” said Portnikov.

At the same time, he did not rule out that the Kremlin might be guided by reasons other than military logic.

According to the journalist, dictator Putin may be interested in deepening the conflict between Ukrainians and Belarusians.

“Putin might act illogically and believe that, on the contrary, it is necessary to immerse Belarus deeper into this war in order to alienate Ukrainians from Belarusians,” he noted.

Portnikov explained that such a scenario could involve civilian casualties in Belarus and further fuel mutual animosity.

“So that Ukrainians strike at Belarus, civilians would die there, so that some emotions arise towards Ukrainians, and among Ukrainians – towards Belarusians,” the journalist said.

He emphasized that such a policy corresponds to the traditional imperial principle of “divide and conquer.”

“This could also be part of this diabolical plan,” Portnikov believes.

The journalist suggested that the Kremlin might even sacrifice certain economic interests to achieve long-term political goals.

“Let’s sacrifice this refinery in Mozyr, but alienate Ukrainians from Belarusians and create conditions for their struggle for years to come,” he cited the possible logic of the Russian leadership.

According to Portnikov, inciting peoples against each other is one of the traditional tools of imperial policy.

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